Why We’re Doing This
Gold and silver have always been part of the Indian investment psyche. Each time bullion prices rally sharply, investor interest surges, accompanied by speculation and short-term decision-making. The objective of this report is to reduce that confusion by presenting a long-term, data-driven understanding of bullion cycles.
We study these cycles because they help investors separate durable trends from temporary excitement. By analysing how gold, silver, and the U.S. dollar have behaved over the past fifty years, we can identify recurring patterns that shape returns over multi-year horizons.
The starting point of this story lies in 1971. At Camp David that August, President Nixon suspended the convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system. The decision marked the transition to a fiat-currency regime, where the dollar and gold were no longer pegged. From that moment, both assets began to move freely, driven by confidence, policy, and liquidity. The result was a clear pattern of alternating up- and down-cycles in the dollar and bullion, which have since defined every major phase of the precious-metal market.
This analysis is not an attempt to predict short-term prices. It is a framework to help investors understand where we are in the long rhythm of these cycles and make more informed, less reactive choices.
Why We Look at Returns in Dollars
Gold and silver are global assets, priced and traded in U.S. dollars—the world’s reserve currency. While the rupee typically depreciates three to four percent per year against the dollar, that effect is minor compared with the multi-fold moves bullion achieves during a full cycle.
For that reason, Amaltas evaluates cycles in dollar terms. It is the dollar that drives the global tide, while the rupee merely adjusts the local translation of those returns.
The dollar sets the stage; the rupee just adjusts the spotlight.
The Amaltas Framework — Let Data Lead, Not Narratives
Every bull market produces a narrative. Today, the dominant themes are that central banks are accumulating gold, the dollar’s reserve status is weakening, and the world is moving toward de-dollarization. While each of these points carries partial truth, the global monetary system evolves far more slowly than such headlines suggest.
At Amaltas, we listen to narratives but we follow data. Five decades of evidence show that the dollar, gold, and silver move in identifiable, repeating cycles. These cycles, not stories, determine when bullion enjoys tailwinds and when conditions turn less favourable.
Markets are influenced more by emotion than logic. Liquidity, confidence, fear, and greed drive outcomes as much as fundamentals. Our approach is therefore empirical and structured.
- Translate stories into numbers. We monitor real yields, dollar trends, official-sector gold flows, and global liquidity.
- Check alignment. When data confirm the cycle—dollar weakening and real yields falling—the macro environment supports bullion. When not, it is noise.
- Act with context. Positioning is sized according to where we are in the broader rhythm, not to short-term opinion.
The purpose is to remain measured while others are reactive. In our experience, cycles endure longer than headlines, and data reveal turning points well before narratives do.
The Dollar–Bullion Cycles Since 1971
| Cycle | Dollar Move | Gold | Silver | Duration | What Drove It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973–1980 | ↓ 24 % | 13.7× | 24× | 7 yrs | Inflation surge, oil shocks, fiat repricing |
| 1980–1985 | ↑ 95 % | –68 % | –88 % | 5 yrs | Volcker tightening, high real rates |
| 1985–1992 | ↓ 52 % | +25 % | –35 % | 7 yrs | Dollar fell, disinflation muted metals |
| 1992–2001 | ↑ 55 % | –29 % | +7 % | 9 yrs | Tech boom, strong USD, long consolidation |
| 2001–2011 | ↓ 40 % | 7.6× | 12.5× | 10 yrs | China-driven commodity boom, easy money |
| 2011–2022 | ↑ 56 % | –16 % | –65 % | 11 yrs | Dollar dominance, low inflation, positive real yields |
| 2022–Now* | ↓ 12 % | 2.5× | 2.9× | ~3 yrs | Inflation shock, policy pivots, safe-haven demand |
*Partial cycle (data to 2025)
What History Repeats — The Shape of the Bullion Cycle
Across five decades, gold and silver have mirrored the dollar’s long rhythm with striking regularity.
1. Length — Slow but Predictable
Each major phase—up or down—lasts six to eleven years, averaging roughly eight. A complete dollar–bullion round trip spans fifteen to twenty years, long enough to test investor patience and discipline.
Gold teaches patience. Silver tests it.
2. Magnitude — Gold the Anchor, Silver the Amplifier
During dollar down-cycles, both metals advance strongly, with silver showing greater volatility. In dollar up-cycles, corrections in bullion are typically deep but temporary.
| Average Move (USD Down Cycles) | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| 1973–1980 | 13.7× | 24× |
| 1985–1992 | +25 % | –35 % |
| 2001–2011 | 7.6× | 12.5× |
| Average Gain | ~7× | ~12× |
| Average Move (USD Up Cycles) | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| 1980–1985 | –68 % | –88 % |
| 1992–2001 | –29 % | +7 % |
| 2011–2022 | –16 % | –65 % |
| Average Loss | –38 % | –49 % |
3. The Outlier That Teaches Humility — When Parabolas Break
The 1985–1992 period demonstrates that a parabolic rise rarely ends well. Between 1976 and 1980, gold rose thirteenfold and silver twenty-fourfold before collapsing. When assets move vertically, the correction is rarely about price alone—time becomes the cost of excess.
Following the 1980 peak, bullion languished for nearly two decades despite a weaker dollar. Similar patterns appeared in the Nasdaq’s 2000 peak and Japan’s Nikkei in 1990. Blow-off phases erase years of future returns and remind investors that euphoria is not strength.
4. The Bullion Compass — Turning Data Into Discipline
| Dollar Direction | Gold Behaviour | Silver Behaviour |
|---|---|---|
| USD Rising | Range-bound | Volatile declines |
| USD Falling | Sustained uptrend | Explosive upside |
Once investors understand the rhythm, it becomes easier to remain composed during volatility.
Where We Are Now — Early in the Bullion Cycle
The Dollar Cycle
The dollar completed an eleven-year up-cycle between 2011 and 2022, reaching multi-decade highs. Since then, it has begun to soften. Historical precedent suggests that dollar down-phases typically last six to eight years, placing us in the early part of a potential weakening trend. Structural factors such as high fiscal deficits, diverging global growth, and diversification away from U.S. assets reinforce this shift.
The Bullion Cycle
Bullion usually follows the dollar’s peak with a lag. Since 2022, gold has appreciated about 2.5× and silver nearly 2.9×. While these gains are notable, they do not yet indicate speculative extremes. Past cycles suggest that the current uptrend may still have distance to travel, though the path will not be linear.
Even in strong bull markets, mid-cycle corrections can be severe.
| Mid-Cycle Correction | Gold Move | Silver Move |
|---|---|---|
| 1976 | –49 % | –28 % |
| 2008 | –34 % | –60 % |
| 2022 | –20 % | –43 % |
In 1976, gold halved before rallying eightfold into 1980. In 2008, both metals declined sharply before reaching new highs within three years. More recently, the 2022 correction has already reset valuations and investor sentiment.
These episodes underline a key point: within every long uptrend, sharp corrections are natural and unpredictable. There is no reliable way to forecast their timing or depth. What matters is the broader dollar context. As long as the dollar trend remains downward, history shows that the underlying bullion cycle tends to recover and resume.
Closing Thoughts
Since 1971, the dollar and bullion have moved in alternating rhythm, each taking turns leading and resting. Recognising that rhythm does not remove risk, but it provides context that reduces error.
At Amaltas, our philosophy is built on three enduring principles:
Evidence over emotion.
Cycles over stories.
Discipline over prediction.
This is how we interpret markets—objectively, patiently, and with respect for history. It is also how we help investors stay grounded through every turn of the cycle.
© 2025 Amaltas Capital. All rights reserved.
